Updated: Mar 13, 2019
“Begin with the End in mind.” – Stephen Covey
Thank you to those who have attended the August 6 Seminar on Fibonacci. This is for those who missed writing notes and/or missed the class entirely.
The first time I heard it, I thought it’s an Italian food—some kind of pasta. Turns out, Fibonacci is a great mathematician who popularized sequential number patterns in the west. Nowadays, the Forex world utilizes this system named after him to find probable entry and exit levels.
Markets have patterns. They tend to bounce and retrace on certain price levels such as the support and resistance levels, then repeat. Hence why trends exist. Fibonacci has similar function. It can identify levels you may trade on as it matches with other tools and indicators such as trend lines, horizontal lines, Price Action, etc.
These are the levels commonly used. You may Right-click on your Fibo Retracement drawing and configure the Properties accordingly:
*Using (%$) would show the exact price of that level.
Now, how to plot and understand your Fibo. Two ways.
One, for Entry point...
You may find yourself in a situation where you missed the first wave of a trend. In this example of a Downtrend, you would want the price to approach the trend line yet again so you could join the next wave. Use the Fibo Retracement tool to identify that Entry level.
Start plotting from Swing High (highest point of a cycle)
Then DRAG to Swing Low (lowest point of a cycle)
The Fibo drawing shows numbers on the side. They are levels. The levels to watch out for are 61.8 and 78.6. These are the levels where price often bounces.
As per example, our good approximate SELL Entry could have been the 78.6 level at price 1.336 or 61.8 level at price 1.330. You may have looked at H4 for a detailed Price Action entry if you can’t find any on D1.
Remember, this is for Downtrend. For Uptrend, plot it the opposite way (from Swing Low to Swing High). Also, avoid using Fibo on a non-trending market a.k.a. Ranging Market. It doesn’t make much sense.
Two, for Exit point...
“The trend is your friend until the bend.”
As you know, nothing’s forever. There will come a time that a market will change direction. SO until when do you hold on to this? Use the Fibo Retracement once again.
This time, plot from Swing Low then DRAG to the new Swing High (right about where you have entered).
For the Exit, the levels to watch out for are 127.2 onwards. In the same example photo, we could see that the trade has been on the positive. At this point, it’s enough to either trail or close the trade at around 127.2 level at price 1.2964
Bonus: Counter-trend Entry
Going with the trend is still king in Forex. Nonetheless, counter-trend traders exist as it’s possible to make money on pullbacks no matter how small compared to the usual trend trades. Just be more careful.
If you’re into that, you would notice that Exit points can also be the new Entry point. Of course, it would be better to wait for a strong Price Action on these levels and be extra strict on risk management before jumping in.
I personally don’t use Fibo as much because I don’t have patience to finish the whole cycle. But I still learned and understood it. It turned out to be useful when I shared this knowledge to my sister who does 80%.
Those who follow our journey knows that my sister is more of the Scalping and Hedging type. Frankly, she makes many big mistakes (the reason why I can’t share the style to everyone unless I can monitor you personally).
To give you an idea, her hedging does not have a stop-loss. That’s why when she makes mistakes, her running negative can get insanely huge. This is intentional though. You may ask, why she’s not cutting it? Where does she get the confidence?
It’s because of Fibo. It tells her where the price would return and waits for it. The huge negative would eventually come back or even turn to positive.
BUT that’s her hedging style. I originally and still urging her to put stop-loss as market may go cuckoo to point that it won't care about Fibo. Nowadays, she’s trying to.
Happy trading everyone!
@marilesaca || Trading Kitten :3
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